Gold at the moment is a little bit of everything to be honest. It’s above the 1642 38.2% fib and next will come in hard into the 20 EMA on the 4h candles, and has traded perfectly off the 23.6% levels and 50% for the last two weeks. However, we do have a 60 EMA/SMA bullish cross for 4 hrs, andlooking into a 24/72 EMA bullish cross on the 1hrs. 1655 has been a small resistance level for the lastwo hours, and a quick and indecisive break which failed could be an indication that tradersare willing to push gold down if needed.
Daily 21/63/21 MACD appears to have bottoming divergence, which would be a massively bullish signal with the 21EMA still above 0 and the 4h and 1h time frames both showing some resilience in small bottoms in a rising trend being sustained during the last push towards the 23.6% fib at 1600. One word of caution however here would be that the MACD is losing relevance across all but the longest time frames, so be very careful unless there is a strong rally here to return the 21D EMA sloping upwards, which would place some trend firmly in place and allow shorter timeframes to gain relevance.
Another word of caution is that the price has spent significantly more time in the 23.6-to-38.2% fib range rather than the 38.2-to-50%. this could be indicative of a downmove and more force with bears. Thus, the analysis at the moment is as follows: target whatever fib is furthest from the 38.2% in the current fib range, exit position and wait for a signal your way inside that range before going for the cross. If crossing, keep a close eye on the next level (61.8 for bulls or 0 for bears) and re-evaluate after exiting position on touch.
Lookover the markets for a while and I’ll try to gather my thoughts on the greater picture for equities and risk assets…