Happy Double Ten Day everyone!
It’s the celebration of the start of unrest in 1911 that led to the fall of the Qing Dynasty and creation of the Republic of China, and thus celebrated in Taiwan. Because it happens on the 10th day of the 10th month, it is known as “Double Ten Festival” (雙十節) since the Taiwanese love anything that comes in pairs: double eight (August 8th) is Father’s Day because “8 8” is read “baba” or “daddy”, double seven is a type of valentine’s day which falls on the 7th day of the 7th lunar month, and apparently there is some double 9th thing as well which I can’t really be bothered to look up.
Instead of bothering too much with the new events in Hong Kong where the government has cancelled talks with the protest movement in the face of threats of civil unrest while the negotiations are ongoing, or the market madness occurring due mainly to the Fed Minutes drop late last night, or even the massive typhoon Vongfong bringing lots of rain to Taiwan at the moment and Japan starting later this weekend, I thought I’d be a a little bit more positive. Specifically, I’ll try to start blogging in Mandarin (traditional characters) for small segments that I am doing on Asian news. It won’t be grammatically perfect or particularly advanced, and because of the time it will take me I will only occasionally be doing this on relatively short snippets of news. My first post in this hopefully somewhat frequent segment is a quickie on the technical analysis of the HSI index, to complement my Macau casino outlook yesterday.
Final note before the jump – even though it’s raining like crazy I think I’ll try doing some work-related stuff that I’d be really happy if I could turn in on Monday next week, and then on top of that some background writing and research for a few other posts, so it might be relatively silent for a few days.
- 動向指數- 還比 動向指數+ 高
- 移動平均匯聚背馳指標就是太低。 對，我想直方圖已經會提高，可是移動平均匯聚背馳指標還是那麼低的時候恆生指數不太會提高
- 23100 或 23600 都現在是阻力的標高 (就看到圖表!)
看到了那麼多的問題我現在就覺得恆生指數 23600 推進過了以前有可能會到 21700 下降。最大的問題是還有有可能126日的移動平均線推進過了以前需要一兩個月的股票交易。我覺得最有意思的未來事情就是滬港通還有中國共產黨中央委員會的十八屆四中全會。
There are a number of relatively heavy problems with the HSI from a technical perspective that could add volatility in the future (not helped by the fundamental news and re-evaluations being traded on), including:
- Falling below the 252-day SMA
- That the DMI- kissed the DMI+ goodbye with little remorse (and the candles align to make that cross exceedingly difficult as well)
- MACD being so low, and the main line keeping falling. Sure, we can look at the histogram bottom, but those are often relatively poor predictors in very-high momentum environments and the failure of that to bounce back more strongly does not inspire me.
- Failure yesterday to cross the 126-day SMA.
- 23 100 and 23 600 now acting as resistance levels.
- The worrying tendency of turnover to be higher on days when the HSI falls than it is on days when the HSI rises, since September.
- (Not in the Chinese version) The fourth-to-last day of October being what I consider a death candle: gap-downs with a relatively big move up from the bottom, and positive price action. Crossing this resistance will be really tough…
Looking at all these issues, I think there is a chance the HSI will hit 21 700 before 23 600, and anyway it looks like it will take one to two months before I’d be comfortable going long the HSI overall. Interesting matters that might change fundamental sentiment to keep your eyes peeled for in the future are the Hong Kong Shanghai Stock Connect opening (October 26th) and the Fourth Plenum of the CPCCC (October 20th-23rd).