Phew! I have been semi-questioning whether this would ever come out, but after a few extra hours of data compilation, cleaning and stuff during the weekend I have my Hong Kong Monetary Base raw data! Yay! Time to get into some cool research with these 692 data points! I haven’t ran anything quantitatively yet, but in the interest of being a bit of a tease without spending too much time formatting data for visualization, there’s a summary graph here:
These data are all directly from the HKMA Monetary Base Database and can be accessed in direct excel format here: HKMA 2012 Statistics S3-2 and I welcome you to look over the data while I get some good rest. It’s pretty annoying to add data together like this over a few days! As for what happened today on the Hang Seng Index:
Oh please… everyone knew that the HK-SH Stock Connect wasn’t going to be ready to be trading now, and they knew it this time last week! The HKEx even went out and said that they’re virtually ready, and the fact that said stock falls 5% on the day is just further proof that this market isn’t efficient! There needs to be a bit more readiness on both sides of the border control, and since going into a market when it’s high and rising is what every decent IPO manager does, why would China not do the same for their “CGO“?
Still, the technical image of what has happened today was pretty scary:
Small volume boost that failed to get over to the 20 day SMA for volume, but still an ADX/DMI cross on the wrong side (DMI+ and DMI- are some bedfellows…) and MACD[21, 63] flatlining on the signal line. On the overlays we have a big hammer candle that opened lower than the previous doji and closed below both 252- and 189 day SMA’s. Also, the trend of the last four trading day high points (or low points for that matter) isn’t very hard to tell…
This candle masks a little bit of a positive sign with the damn pre-market trading being the deciding factor of the candle layout. The actual market opened around 23 125, and not 23 275, making this candle a slightly open-close advancing doji, which would make it slightly more positive. Throughout the day the price was really bouncing hard against the 252 and 189 day SMA’s after the initial hit at 23 013 early in the morning trade. Though, this creates two descending dojis on relatively low volume which isn’t a very good signal overall any way you cut it. I’ll stick with my call of waiting for price to start flirting with the 21 800 – 22 000 range.