Alternatively, if you have any trader friends long the dollar, get them to buy you something nice.
The US$ has been on a tear recently, and it has broken the old anti-correlation with risk: currently the US$ trades more like a risk-on currency than a safe haven. Our previous USD/JPY top around 115.5 is confidently broken and we’ve dinged 115.8 a few minutes ago. Similarly, the EUR/USD is coming down hard on 1.24. Again, there are links to charts available through this blog.
It looks like momentum upwards is very much alive and well. If this is the case, along with a “risk-on dollar” then it sets up a lot more of resistance break scenarios like those outlined earlier today. A lot of the market-moving news out of the APEC summit were good, and the Hong Kong – Shanghai Stock Connect is pretty much screaming for a risk-on play in these conditions. By the looks of it, an attractive dollar, tied to better prospective markets and plenty of stock market appreciation potential, should really allow Hong Kong to see some value appreciation.
During the morning trade, it looked very much like moves in the USD/JPY were matched in direction minute-to-minute with the Hang Seng Index. It could indicate that Hong Kong is seeing a lot of Japanese investment interest, given the falls in the yen and the prospects in China and Hong Kong. This feature dissipating during the afternoon would confirm this, as the Japanese traders leave their desks around 2 p.m. Hong Kong time.
Although statistically very difficult to show, it seems like these moves are preceded by moves in the commodity markets, particularly oil and natural gas, and are followed by precious metal moves. It looks like the underlying economic prospects are shifting at the seams and oil in particular is in the vanguard for this, unless this is just a statistical blip and everything is due to the risk positive evaluation of the US$ given central bank quantitative easing disparities.
Watching the US opening tonight will be really interesting though, as the yen is in recently uncharted (no pun intended) territory, and the euro falling to below 1.24 again could well sweep out that support and lead to new falls towards 1.22 for the week. What will I be watching in the mean time? Crude!