The first batch of data out of Asia for the day has been out for a while, and I can finally get to it! This post will be updated throughout the day as more data comes along.
- 08:30 JST: The Reuters Tankan survey of manufacturers was a 13 vs. a previous month 8, so it is a slight improvement but the expectation is that this will turn down again later. Still a relatively good positive at the moment, and the future is changing fast in Japan. As they say, forecasting is difficult, especially about the future!
- 08:50 JST: The October manufacturing orders however were up 2.9% MoM (exp: -1.9%, pre: 4.6%), and 7.3% YoY (exp: -1.3%, pre: -3.3%). Great for manufacturing orders and things are probably going to be even better come November data!
- 08:50 JST: Capital flows for last week were strong! Foreigners bought a net 1124 billion yen of bonds, and 1055 billion of equity, versus 807 and 905 billion the prior week respectively. foreigners believe in the longer-term prospects for Japan, or simply love quantitative easing!
- 08:50 JST: Corporate goods prices decreased 0.8% MoM, and only increased 2.9% YoY, vs expectations that were 0.4% higher for both data points. Price pressures are downwards for Japanese companies, and this could probably be explained by the raw materials prices being lower than expected for the period, but it doesn’t indicate inflation anytime soon. It might indicate higher profits to the extent that the supply chains are small, but for longer supply chains this means decreased profits throughout.
- 13:30 JST: Japan industrial production and factory capacity ratios were both giving out really good data, up 2.7% and 3.6% respectively. The market reacted calmly to this but it is definitely a good sign that demand for Japanese production might be increasing, together with the manufacturing orders earlier this morning. Green shoots are showing!
- 13:30 CST: The Chinese data here (urban investment, industrial output and retail sales) came in largely within expectations but with a 0.3% downwards miss on industrial production and 0.1% ditto on retail sales. I am not surprised. This was pretty much to be expected given other data, but the misses were apparently worth nearly 100 points on the HSI in stimulus expectations, and 80 on the Nikkei 225 (which didn’t respond to industrial production data meaningfully). What does seem to be up is volatility though, the HSI started see-sawing in a wider range than it has previously in the day, so perhaps a lot of money is being moved around, which would be a positive for the prospects of cracking 24 000.
More updates throughout the day! So far neither the yen nor the Nikkei 225 seems to be too interested in this data and has kept relatively flat for the morning sessions.