Not too much is happening right now, so I am getting a quiet-before-the-storm feeling, and a good chance to update the blog here on what the evening and night will bring.
First a quick update:
- Germany GDP: Completely in line with expectations of a 0.1% MoM and 1.2% YoY number, vs. revised data of -0.1% and 1.0% for the prior period.
- French business sentiment was up to 99 from 98, beating expectations of 97.
- Swedish PPI numbers beat prior period PPI’s by 0.45% YoY and 0.43% MoM. This is probably really good since the country has been flirting with deflation under a right-wing government, and looks increasingly likely to dig deeper under a left-wing government.
- Italian retail sales beat prior data to just be significantly less negative.
- None of these have had a huge market impact, although the French business sentiment data started a push higher in the EUR/USD from 1.242 to 1.244 in about 90 minutes.
- In other news, the AUD/USD is testing below 0.854, which it hadn’t seen since 2010 prior to today! It looks like the resource-bearish trade is definitely on and a generally strengthening dollar is also observed elsewhere. The AUD/USD tested 0.852 briefly, and lower commodity prices could easily see the pair test the significant support/resistance at 0.8.
As for the data we have to look forwards to? Hit the jump for more!
- 12:45 GMT – ICSC-Goldman Sachs US Chain Store Sales Index (WoW/YoY). Exp: N/A. Prior: 0.2% / 2.2%
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP, Full / Core PCE Price Index (prelim.) Exp: 1.2%/ 1.4%. Prior: 2.3% / 2.0%
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP, Personal Consumption / Final Sales (prelim.) Exp: NA. Prior: 2.5% / 2.8%
- 13:30 GMT – US GDP, Headline / Deflator (prelim.) Exp: 3.3% / 1.3%. Prior: 4.2% / 2.2%
- 13:30 GMT – US Corporate Profits (prelim.) Exp: N/A. Prior: 8.35%
- 13:30 GMT – Canada Retail Sales / RS ex-auto, MoM. Exp: 0.5% / 0.3%. Prior: -0.3% / -0.3%
- 13:55 GMT – US Retail Sales, Redbook (MoM/YoY). Exp: N/A. Prior: -0.9% / 3.9%
- 14:00 GMT – Case Shiller US Home Price Index (MoM/MoM-adj/YoY) Exp: 0.2% / 0.1% / 4.6%. Prior: 0.2% / -0.1% / 5.6%
- 14:00 GMT – FHFA Monthly Home Prices (MoM/YoY). Exp: N/A. Prior: 0.5% / 4.7%
- 15:00 GMT – Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Survey. Exp: 96. Prior: 94.5.
- 15:00 GMT – Richmond Fed Business Activity Index, Manufacturing / Services Revenue / Shipments. Exp: N/A. Prior: 20 / 27 / 23
I will update this as the data ticks in with real numbers and analysis. Overall though, I would expect developments to be largely positive given the overall trends that have been showing up in US data as of late. I do personally believe that the Federal Reserve, for example, has been having an inkling of where things are going.
- Chain store sales were up 2.2% on the YoY and 0.2% on the week, identical to the prior data, but the prior data got revised to show a 1.5% WoW increase and a 2.1% YoY increase. Meanwhile, the dollar is trading marginally stronger.
- Off of the GDP data batch, the only thing that missed estimates was Personal Consumption, clocking in at 2.2% rather than 2.5%. Headline GDP down to 3.9% but still beating estimates of 3.3, and the deflator value was up 1.4%. Final sales up 4.2% from a prior reading of 2.8, even! This data seems to be pushing the US$ and global indices higher as well, after the prior data impact had faded. Volatility is really high though as the US markets are starting up trade.
- Corporate profits fell to 3.2%!
- Retail sales (-0.8% MoM, 4.2% YoY) were marginally better than the prior reading.
- All Case Shiller House Price data was down from the prior reading but better than expectations, ending up at 0.3% on adjusted MoM and 4.9% YoY. The FHFA data was also worse than the prior reading, underestimating by 0.4% or 0.5% depending on if you used YoY or MoM data. Markets are taking this very calmly.
- Saying that consumer confidence expectations missed is a bit of an understatement (going with the retail data for the evening) when the value is reported at 88.7 (off expectations at 96!). Business activity data was also really disappointing, with manufacturing and shipments at 4 and 1 respectively (off expectations of 20 and 23). Ouch..! Dollar broadly lower along with equity indices and futures.